Supercomm, Day 1

Up-to-the-minute news, analysis and observation.

By Jim Duffy
10:07 PM EST

Exhibit halls 1/4 empty...

Light traffic on the show floor...

Empty up and down escalators to and from the exhibit halls...

If you hate crowds, you'll love Supercomm 2002. It may feel good to have some room, but boy, it doesn't feel good if your livelihood is linked to the health of this industry. It doesn't look good either.

Some of my thoughts on Supercomm's first day. Please share some of yours here too. Finally, here are some from Bill Lesieur, director of Technology Business Research in Hampton, NH, which read like An Ode to a Downtrodden Industry. Bill may be the Alan Ginsburg of our industry...

With the telecom world bouncing around the bottom of
the market, SuperComm this week will set the tone for
the industry recovery in 2003 and beyond.

The telecom industry is faced with decreased
competition and consolidation, an uncertain regulatory
environment and a closed capital market.

FUD [Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt] pervades the massive
SuperComm telecom industry trade show.

The telecom world is preparing to rise from the ashes as a
new kind of industry that has been forever changed by
IP technology and the Internet boom years.

SuperComm 2002 [show floor] is about too many
companies selling the same stuff to too many service
providers with crashed business models.

SuperComm 2002 [show floor] is about too many
companies selling the same products to too few service
providers willing to buy anything [from anybody].

New leaders will emerge from the ashes of the telecom
industry meltdown and economic recession, while many
other companies will have grave regrets two years from
now for not more aggressively crafting a future in a
new kind of telecom industry.

New leaders will emerge from the ashes of the telecom
industry meltdown, while many other companies will
perish in their fear and paralysis.

Few companies successfully emerge from a recession
doing business in the same way with the same products;
so many telecom companies will need to quickly
redefine themselves to survive.

Irrational underspending by service providers will
last another year, which will be likely be followed by
renaissance of technological innovation in 2004 and
2005 by the “new” telecom industry.

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