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Analysts see tough times ahead for PC makers

By Agam Shah , IDG News Service , 07/17/2008
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The worldwide PC market grew at a healthy 15.3% in the second quarter but the weak economy means tough times and possibly a wave of consolidation may lie ahead for PC makers, according to surveys released Wednesday.

The weak economy has already started taking its toll on the United States, where belt-tightening among businesses and consumers has led to PC shipment growth in the low single digits, according to figures from IDC. Growth in Asia was roughly 15%, but strong laptop sales helped EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) report strong double-digit growth, IDC said.

Gartner, which also released its figures Wednesday, said the weak economy has forced PC makers to slash prices in order to stay competitive. That's good news for end users but could mean the end for smaller PC makers if the trend continues. (Read what John Chambers has to say about the economy.)

"The industry could ultimately see a significant wave of consolidation if stronger vendors continue to press their pricing advantage." Gartner said.

The leading PC makers can reduce their costs by working with suppliers to get better deals, but smaller PC vendors don't have that type of leverage, said David Daoud, an IDC research manager.

U.S. PC shipments grew just 3.6% in the quarter to 17 million units, down from IDC's original prediction of 3.8%, Daoud said. People are spending more on essentials like gas and food and have little money for discretionary items like PCs and consumer electronics gear, he said.

Shipments in EMEA grew 23.5%, while shipments in Asia-Pacific climbed 18.1%, according to Gartner. Notebook sales were particularly strong, growing 40% worldwide, it said.

According to Gartner's survey, Apple overtook Acer in the United States to take third place behind Dell and HP, shipping 1.4 million units compared with Acer's 1.33 million. IDC had Acer and Apple neck and neck.

Worldwide, HP retained its spot as top PC vendor, shipping 13.32 million units for an 18.9% share of the market, up 16.8% year-over-year. Dell, in second place, shipped 11.56 million units for a 16.4% market share and a 21.4% year-over-year increase. Acer witnessed a sharp 63.5% year-over-year rise, putting it in third place with 6.97 million units shipped. Lenovo and Toshiba came fourth and fifth, respectively.

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